Anticipating Shocks Before They Become Crises

BORESHA-NABAD strengthens the capacity of communities and cross-border stakeholders to anticipate, prevent and respond to disaster and conflict risks before they escalate.

In the Mandera Triangle, drought, floods, livestock movement, resource pressure and local grievances often overlap. When communities are not prepared, and institutions are not coordinated, climate shocks can quickly deepen tensions, disrupt markets and increase insecurity.

The programme, therefore, treats investments in disaster risk reduction as an overarching response anchored across all other intervention areas, including peacebuilding, conflict prevention, climate-smart investments, and water and income generation for women and youth, with the view that disaster risk reduction, preparedness, and prevention can serve as a stabilisation tool.

BORESHA-NABAD also partners with cross-border government departments/agencies and line ministries, DRR committees, peace structures, and community institutions to strengthen early warning, participatory risk analysis, contingency planning, first-line response, and conflict-sensitive preparedness by facilitating transition pathways that enable communities to move from reactive crisis response to anticipatory action and local resilience.

KEY INTERVENTION AREAS:

· Strengthening participatory risk governance systems, by supporting community-led risk mapping and DRR planning that feed into local development and preparedness structures.

· Building cross-border anticipatory coordination mechanisms, through joint contingency planning that aligns actions between communities, authorities, and institutions across the Mandera Triangle.

· Integrating early warning and response systems, by linking traditional knowledge with technical forecasting and ensuring information flows effectively from community level to decision-makers.

· Strengthening first-line response capacities, by enhancing the ability of community actors, DRR committees, and local institutions to respond rapidly and effectively to emerging shocks.

· Embedding DRR within peace and governance systems, by connecting risk reduction with conflict prevention, mediation, and social cohesion processes to address the overlap between climate stress and insecurity.

· Investing in shared resilience and peace infrastructure, including “peace dividend” investments that reduce resource competition, improve access to services, and strengthen cooperation between communities.

· Activating crisis modifier and anticipatory financing mechanisms, enabling rapid, flexible support during shocks to protect livelihoods, sustain systems functionality, and prevent reversal of development gains.

RESULTS SNAPSHOT

· Community-based risk management systems strengthened through 20 gender-responsive DRR plans, improving local preparedness and coordinated response capacity

· Cross-border anticipatory coordination mechanisms enhanced, with 350 stakeholders engaged in joint contingency planning and learning processes

· Early warning-to-action systems reinforced, linking community structures, government actors, and humanitarian response pathways

· Shock-responsive financing systems activated, reaching 5,000 people through crisis modifier interventions to protect livelihoods and system continuity

· Resilience dividends generated, benefiting 41,022 individuals through integrated peace and resilience investments that reduce exposure to climate-conflict shocks